The landfall of Super Typhoon Phanphone at Japan on October 4, 2014, was traveling in a most unfortunate straight-line which when tracked directly along to the other side of the Pacific comes out at exactly San Francisco and The Napa Valley. More approximately the line intersects California around Fort Bragg, Napa, Santa Rosa, Sacramento, Fresno, Modesto, Barstow, Twenty-Nine Palms, and Nogales. The line crosses the Napa Valley and actually does not dissect San Francisco or Oakland per se, although my newest theory of a "Broad Line" could be exaggerated to include both major cities.
There is also an existing Official Prediction that will run through November 1, 2014 for a lot of the same region however in a line perpendicular to our new line.
I will estimate this magnitude at 7.3 Richters and will run until Midnight on the night of November 17, 2014.
Although Anchorage did receive a 6.2 Richters Earthquake from the other lines discussed in my other Official Prediction, we should continue that alert through November 1, 2014 due to there still being line T-LV-S, and they received a 6.2 at the tip of The Gulf of California on October 6, 2014 agreeing with my theory that there is movement along this line. There was also just a 6.8 with aftershocks near Easter Island as I was writing this and there is now so much Earthquake Energy around the Pacific that California will have a much higher chance of earthquakes throughout the duration of this Official Prediction.
The earthquake energy generated at Japan upon the landfall of Super Typhoon Phanphone WILL result in an earthquake exactly as I describe in this Official Prediction. Additionally, there was a 6.2 at Napa, California on August 24, 2014 and that region could be due a major aftershock and it could be much larger than that original one was. Super Typhoon Vongfong with 200mph Gusts is also currently approaching Japan and looking like MORE Earthquake Energy for California following this one even still yet! I have to wait for that landfall to know, but it could become three in a row heading for California.
Folks in the Napa Valley Region as well as San Francisco, Oakland, and several of those other California communities may wish to be informed of the fact that there IS Earthquake Energy heading directly for them, and that Earthquake Preparations should be discussed right now.
Respectfully Submitted This Day 8 of October 2014 By The EQ Alert Guy
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Thursday, August 28, 2014
LETTER SENT TO: California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council: Updated Information on San Francisco/Napa Earthquake From The EQ Alert Guy
August 28,2014
To: John Parrish, CEPEC, Michael Blanpied, NEPEC
Fm: Les Brown, The EQ Alert Guy
Gentlemen,
I recently traveled to California on Amtrak for what I call "Quake Chase 2014: Oakland" due to all of the foreshocks they had been getting and what was looking very much like a lot of danger from a Major Earthquake heading in the direction of San Franicsco and you could say Napa, California. While I like to declare my "Quake Chase 2014: Oakland" a success. . . the fact of the matter is I traveled there during the August Full Moon/Super Moon on August 9, 10, and 11, and left for home on Amtrak August 12, now actually just 12 days before the recent San Francisco/Napa Earthquake on August 24. You may like to see my weekly video Log covering Quake Chase 2014: Oakland @ https://t.co/hBEGIVjhp6
Today I thought I should write to CEPEC, and NEPEC and put in a good word for myself with regards to the fact that ultimately the Napa Earthquake actually struck 3 hours before the following August New Moon Window and it appears that it probably WAS a response to all of the foreshocks California had been getting at both Lakeview, North of Reno, as well as Incline Village, Mammoth Lakes and a number of other earthquakes that seemed unusual.
Finally, I'm asking the Councils to understand that in the great rush I undertook to schedule my itinerary and get to the location, I DID NOT notify either council of what I thought to be such an impending event. Today I am very sorry I do not appear to have any communications having been submitted to CEPEC/NEPEC communicating the fact that it was looking so much like a Major California Earthquake might be arriving with that August Full Moon/Super Moon that I was inspired to immediately travel out there in the wake especially of what was at that time the "Lakeview Swarm" North of Reno. A search revealed my original CEPEC/NEPEC submission of June 24, 2014 and which had been extended in the general sense to run through August 15, 2014 although it appears this was never submitted to the Councils. That entire Official Prediction with extensions, can be viewed at: http://earthquakealert3.blogspot.com/2014/06/official-prediction-due-to-chance-west.html AND it was recently my decision not to file additional Official Predictions for areas such as California/West Coast when one for similar areas is already in effect, rather, I decided I would submit updates and extend the existing Official Prediction based on new earthquake energy in the same manner as a Severe Weather Alert might need to be extended due to new Thunderstorms forming in a given area. In this case that present O.P. would have easily been extended at least until August 24, 2014, a discussion of the Full Moon/Super Moon was in order, and just the file date on that O.P. of June 24, 2014 would almost automatically tell me it should run by itself out to Day 60, or August 24, 2014. Additionally, landfalls of Typhoons Neoguri, Ramassun, Matmo, and Halong should have been cause for at least an Amendment being filed with the Councils and ultimately warning of increased Potential Earthquake Energy will into September 2014.
In the future, if the Gentlemen would not mind the potential whirlwind of my communications, mostly via E-Mail, I can attempt to more precisely maintain up-to-date filings with both Councils as needed and especially in situations such as that which preceded the recent San Francisco/Napa, California 6.0 Earthquake of August 24, 2014. I deeply regret not having forwarded any information stating all of what I knew to be going on in California and instead traveled there and enjoyed informing random people on my own. . . with the result being the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council did not have any communications with regards to the fact that they did in fact, have a Major Earthquake heading for them. I am very sorry for the many folks hurt in that recent earthquake, too, and am Very Sorry for not keeping both Councils updated on what I believed to be going on in California during the August Full and New Moons and the subsequent risk of a Major Earthquake there!
Respectfully,
Les Brown,
The EQ Alert Guy
***********************************************
To: John Parrish, CEPEC, Michael Blanpied, NEPEC
Fm: Les Brown, The EQ Alert Guy
Gentlemen,
I recently traveled to California on Amtrak for what I call "Quake Chase 2014: Oakland" due to all of the foreshocks they had been getting and what was looking very much like a lot of danger from a Major Earthquake heading in the direction of San Franicsco and you could say Napa, California. While I like to declare my "Quake Chase 2014: Oakland" a success. . . the fact of the matter is I traveled there during the August Full Moon/Super Moon on August 9, 10, and 11, and left for home on Amtrak August 12, now actually just 12 days before the recent San Francisco/Napa Earthquake on August 24. You may like to see my weekly video Log covering Quake Chase 2014: Oakland @ https://t.co/hBEGIVjhp6
Today I thought I should write to CEPEC, and NEPEC and put in a good word for myself with regards to the fact that ultimately the Napa Earthquake actually struck 3 hours before the following August New Moon Window and it appears that it probably WAS a response to all of the foreshocks California had been getting at both Lakeview, North of Reno, as well as Incline Village, Mammoth Lakes and a number of other earthquakes that seemed unusual.
Finally, I'm asking the Councils to understand that in the great rush I undertook to schedule my itinerary and get to the location, I DID NOT notify either council of what I thought to be such an impending event. Today I am very sorry I do not appear to have any communications having been submitted to CEPEC/NEPEC communicating the fact that it was looking so much like a Major California Earthquake might be arriving with that August Full Moon/Super Moon that I was inspired to immediately travel out there in the wake especially of what was at that time the "Lakeview Swarm" North of Reno. A search revealed my original CEPEC/NEPEC submission of June 24, 2014 and which had been extended in the general sense to run through August 15, 2014 although it appears this was never submitted to the Councils. That entire Official Prediction with extensions, can be viewed at: http://earthquakealert3.blogspot.com/2014/06/official-prediction-due-to-chance-west.html AND it was recently my decision not to file additional Official Predictions for areas such as California/West Coast when one for similar areas is already in effect, rather, I decided I would submit updates and extend the existing Official Prediction based on new earthquake energy in the same manner as a Severe Weather Alert might need to be extended due to new Thunderstorms forming in a given area. In this case that present O.P. would have easily been extended at least until August 24, 2014, a discussion of the Full Moon/Super Moon was in order, and just the file date on that O.P. of June 24, 2014 would almost automatically tell me it should run by itself out to Day 60, or August 24, 2014. Additionally, landfalls of Typhoons Neoguri, Ramassun, Matmo, and Halong should have been cause for at least an Amendment being filed with the Councils and ultimately warning of increased Potential Earthquake Energy will into September 2014.
In the future, if the Gentlemen would not mind the potential whirlwind of my communications, mostly via E-Mail, I can attempt to more precisely maintain up-to-date filings with both Councils as needed and especially in situations such as that which preceded the recent San Francisco/Napa, California 6.0 Earthquake of August 24, 2014. I deeply regret not having forwarded any information stating all of what I knew to be going on in California and instead traveled there and enjoyed informing random people on my own. . . with the result being the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council did not have any communications with regards to the fact that they did in fact, have a Major Earthquake heading for them. I am very sorry for the many folks hurt in that recent earthquake, too, and am Very Sorry for not keeping both Councils updated on what I believed to be going on in California during the August Full and New Moons and the subsequent risk of a Major Earthquake there!
Respectfully,
Les Brown,
The EQ Alert Guy
***********************************************
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Venice Beach Was Struck By Lightning on Sunday!!! Here Are Some Clips From A Random Local Webcam:
NO Actual Lightning in this shot, and nobody hurt here. . . scene just lights up and folks react and leave the scene. One lady stops and turns her bike around. Sorry for those hurt and loss of one of our friends there! God Bless!!!
Saturday, July 12, 2014
Geophysicists Concerned as Oklahoma's Earthquake Total Surpasses California's!!!!! Great Story borrowed from "Accuweather.com"
By Michael Kuhne, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer on July 11, 2014; 4:29 AM
Frequent, rumbling tremors beneath the earth may be a common occurrence in California, but Oklahoma has now surpassed the state in the number of earthquakes felt this year-a trend that is surprising geophysicists and raising concern. "It is actually very surprising to us as well," Pasadena, California-based U.S. Geological Survey Geophysicist Elizabeth Cochran said. Between 1975 and 2008, only an average of two earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or greater would occur each year in Oklahoma. Since 2009, the number of quakes has climbed exponentially, and there are no signs of slowing.
"There has been a dramatic increase in that time," Cochran said. "We're seeing a very steep increase with 183 quakes occurring in a six-month period." Between October 2013 and April 2014, 183 earthquakes occurred with a magnitude of 3.0 or higher, and continue to occur with an average depth of 3 miles. Between 1975 and 2008, a total of 40 earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or greater occurred, according to a USGS study. Cochran said the rate will continue to climb in the future based on the current data.
The cause for this increase does not appear to be natural and has likely been induced by fluid injection, part of the crude oil and gas industry's disposal of wastewater through the creation of wastewater wells. Changes in pressure near faults in Oklahoma that surpass the fault's critical pressure threshold are likely the cause of the seismic activity surge. The injection of wastewater fluids deep into the ground can lubricate existing, dormant faults and change the stress and pressure of the fault, leading to increased seismic activity, Cochran said. "These quakes tend to be shallower," she said. "At this point, we do not think this is a natural variation."
According to a recent research study Cochran cited, not only has the rate of occurrence increased, but the rate in which earthquakes have the potential to ignite other quakes. "There is a fundamental change in the seismicity and statistically they differ from natural earthquake sequences," she said. While there are currently a number of studies being conducted on the increased activity in Oklahoma, earthquakes caused by injection tend to occur more frequently in areas than they once did, have a shallower depth than tectonic quakes that occur at the basement rock, along with epicenters in proximity to wastewater wells, she said. "These are the key things we look at," Cochran said. "[Fluids] may run into a fault and decrease the strength of that fault, essentially allowing it to slip.
According to Cochran, there are thousands of wastewater injection sites across the state, and many more across the country, but understanding the physics behind why some areas have seen dramatic increases and others have not depends on understanding a variety of variables. Cochran said the rate in which injection occurs, the volume of fluid injected and the existing state of the geology may all play a role.
The largest event in the state to occur in the past century was a 5.6-magnitude quake that struck Oklahoma in November 2011. "That was the largest event linked to injection," Cochran said. With the growing number of quakes in the region, the hazards associated with an even larger event occurring near a major metropolitan area have geophysicists concerned. "That is our big concern," Cochran said. "There is an increased probability of a larger event occurring." With the increased frequency of quakes in the region, the potential for a larger, damaging earthquake is more and more likely, she added. "We're just lucky that it [5.6 quake] did not occur in a major metropolitan area," she said, adding it struck about 45 miles from Oklahoma City. Earthquakes cannot be predicted in advance and can occur without warning. "The best we can do is make a long term forecast," she said.
Thank-You to Accuweather.com for this story!!! EQ Guy
LINK To Original Story@ http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/oklahoma-earthquakes-wastewater-wells-fluid-injection/29640426
Frequent, rumbling tremors beneath the earth may be a common occurrence in California, but Oklahoma has now surpassed the state in the number of earthquakes felt this year-a trend that is surprising geophysicists and raising concern. "It is actually very surprising to us as well," Pasadena, California-based U.S. Geological Survey Geophysicist Elizabeth Cochran said. Between 1975 and 2008, only an average of two earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or greater would occur each year in Oklahoma. Since 2009, the number of quakes has climbed exponentially, and there are no signs of slowing.
"There has been a dramatic increase in that time," Cochran said. "We're seeing a very steep increase with 183 quakes occurring in a six-month period." Between October 2013 and April 2014, 183 earthquakes occurred with a magnitude of 3.0 or higher, and continue to occur with an average depth of 3 miles. Between 1975 and 2008, a total of 40 earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or greater occurred, according to a USGS study. Cochran said the rate will continue to climb in the future based on the current data.
The cause for this increase does not appear to be natural and has likely been induced by fluid injection, part of the crude oil and gas industry's disposal of wastewater through the creation of wastewater wells. Changes in pressure near faults in Oklahoma that surpass the fault's critical pressure threshold are likely the cause of the seismic activity surge. The injection of wastewater fluids deep into the ground can lubricate existing, dormant faults and change the stress and pressure of the fault, leading to increased seismic activity, Cochran said. "These quakes tend to be shallower," she said. "At this point, we do not think this is a natural variation."
According to a recent research study Cochran cited, not only has the rate of occurrence increased, but the rate in which earthquakes have the potential to ignite other quakes. "There is a fundamental change in the seismicity and statistically they differ from natural earthquake sequences," she said. While there are currently a number of studies being conducted on the increased activity in Oklahoma, earthquakes caused by injection tend to occur more frequently in areas than they once did, have a shallower depth than tectonic quakes that occur at the basement rock, along with epicenters in proximity to wastewater wells, she said. "These are the key things we look at," Cochran said. "[Fluids] may run into a fault and decrease the strength of that fault, essentially allowing it to slip.
According to Cochran, there are thousands of wastewater injection sites across the state, and many more across the country, but understanding the physics behind why some areas have seen dramatic increases and others have not depends on understanding a variety of variables. Cochran said the rate in which injection occurs, the volume of fluid injected and the existing state of the geology may all play a role.
The largest event in the state to occur in the past century was a 5.6-magnitude quake that struck Oklahoma in November 2011. "That was the largest event linked to injection," Cochran said. With the growing number of quakes in the region, the hazards associated with an even larger event occurring near a major metropolitan area have geophysicists concerned. "That is our big concern," Cochran said. "There is an increased probability of a larger event occurring." With the increased frequency of quakes in the region, the potential for a larger, damaging earthquake is more and more likely, she added. "We're just lucky that it [5.6 quake] did not occur in a major metropolitan area," she said, adding it struck about 45 miles from Oklahoma City. Earthquakes cannot be predicted in advance and can occur without warning. "The best we can do is make a long term forecast," she said.
Thank-You to Accuweather.com for this story!!! EQ Guy
LINK To Original Story@ http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/oklahoma-earthquakes-wastewater-wells-fluid-injection/29640426
Friday, July 11, 2014
3.9 Richters Strikes 20 MIles Southwest of Island of Jersey, UK!!!!!
Now what I found to be the most interesting part of this particular earthquake, besides it having a fairly huge felt report that you can see below, is the fact that on this felt report for Jersey, UK. . . also appears the fact that it was ALSO felt in Guernsey, UK!!!!! Long I have known that both of these two islands just so happen to be the exact very islands where we get all of our Jersey and Guernsey cows, but until now had not given too much thought to the fact that the existence of these two breeds of cows might owe at least a little something to Plate Tectonics!!!
So, here is that felt report for a 3.9 Richters Earthquake that struck offshore from England and please feel free to give some thought to what way the two islands are connected or perhaps where all of the other cows such as the Jerseys and Guernseys might have ended up in the movement of all those tectonic "Micro-Plates" over around England. Did England also have cows that evolved into yet other species? France? And where were the Longhorns evolving while all of this was going on? How long ago? Was there a time when all these cows came from one prehistoric cow family???
(Felt Report Updated 8:30pm Pacicic on 7-11)
City.........Country, Etc..................................#.....Km
Binic, Bretagne, France.............................1.....61 km
Kingsbridge, England, United Kingdom..............1....158 km
La Richardais, Bretagne, France......................1.....68 km
Plouguiel, Bretagne, France...........................1.....62 km
Saint Helier, Saint Helier, Jersey.....................1.....34 km
Saint Martin, Saint Martin, Jersey....................1.....39 km
Saint Peter, Saint Peter, Jersey...................1.....30 km
Saint Peter Port, ", Guernsey and Alderney......11.....41 km
Saint Saviour, Saint Saviour, Jersey.................4.....35 km
Torteval, Torteval, Guernsey and Alderney........4.....38 km
Trinity, Trinity, Jersey......................................1.....36 km
This is also happening in the middle of the July 2014 Full Moon Window which Officially started just a couple hours ago and so keep watching for more shaking at Jersey, Guernsey and other places and you can see todays regular EQ Blog @ http://earthquakealert.blogspot.com/2014/07/looks-like-something-might-be-shaking.html
Thank-You for Reading!!! EQ Guy
So, here is that felt report for a 3.9 Richters Earthquake that struck offshore from England and please feel free to give some thought to what way the two islands are connected or perhaps where all of the other cows such as the Jerseys and Guernseys might have ended up in the movement of all those tectonic "Micro-Plates" over around England. Did England also have cows that evolved into yet other species? France? And where were the Longhorns evolving while all of this was going on? How long ago? Was there a time when all these cows came from one prehistoric cow family???
(Felt Report Updated 8:30pm Pacicic on 7-11)
City.........Country, Etc..................................#.....Km
Binic, Bretagne, France.............................1.....61 km
Kingsbridge, England, United Kingdom..............1....158 km
La Richardais, Bretagne, France......................1.....68 km
Plouguiel, Bretagne, France...........................1.....62 km
Saint Helier, Saint Helier, Jersey.....................1.....34 km
Saint Martin, Saint Martin, Jersey....................1.....39 km
Saint Peter, Saint Peter, Jersey...................1.....30 km
Saint Peter Port, ", Guernsey and Alderney......11.....41 km
Saint Saviour, Saint Saviour, Jersey.................4.....35 km
Torteval, Torteval, Guernsey and Alderney........4.....38 km
Trinity, Trinity, Jersey......................................1.....36 km
This is also happening in the middle of the July 2014 Full Moon Window which Officially started just a couple hours ago and so keep watching for more shaking at Jersey, Guernsey and other places and you can see todays regular EQ Blog @ http://earthquakealert.blogspot.com/2014/07/looks-like-something-might-be-shaking.html
Thank-You for Reading!!! EQ Guy
Friday, April 25, 2014
OFFICIAL PREDICTION FOR ANCHORAGE, ALASKA AND ALASKA TO GET AN EARTHQUAKE BETWEEN 6.6 AND 8.9 RICHTERS BEFORE MAY 10, 2014
[On May 10, 2014, I filed an Extension By Letter for this Official Prediction now through June 1, 2014. You can view that at my EQ Blog@ http://earthquakealert.blogspot.com/2014/05/55-strikes-113-miles-southwest-of.html ]
It is more or less common knowledge that the Pacific Tectonic Plate moves towards the north along the edge of the North American Tectonic Plate. In recent days this movement was indicated by several earthquakes along the eastern edge of the Pacific. Most Notably and in order both chronologically as well as from south to north, they are 8.2 Chile, 6.6 Nicaragua, 7.5 Mexico and as of yesterday, April 24, 2014, a 6.6 at Vancouver Island, Canada.
The latter in the series received much discussion in the days before it occurred due to Chile, Nicaragua, and Mexico shaking in that order also more or less as predicted. Chile had also been in an EQ Blog under the heading “Next MegaThruster/Tsunami Could Be Coming” immediately before it shook and in a Twitter message as well. Here is a link to that EQ Blog entry: http://earthquakealert.blogspot.com/2014/04/new-moon-alert-ends-but-next.html
Therefore it seems necessary now to submit this Official Prediction to the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council strictly for the purpose of noting that there should be a Major Earthquake in the range of 6.6 to 8.9 at or near the Denali Fault and very near the City of Anchorage, Alaska and well within the State of Alaska probably well before May 10, 2014 and very likely in the hours and days that will immediately follow the submission and posting of this Official Prediction. It seems most likely Anchorage and Alaska will shake at some point during the April 2014 New Moon Window of April 28 at 6:18 UTC through April 30 at 6:18 UTC if not before then. If this earthquake or series of earthquakes has not commenced by the final moments of the month of April 2014, then it will continue to remain likely into the very early hours and days of May 2014.
This type of occasional movement of the Pacific Tectonic Plate seems as though it is being fairly predictable at least on occasions such as this where it is exhibiting a circular motion thus resulting in the movement against the North American Tectonic Plate that it is rather famous for and has more than been established historically. You could say that if and when Anchorage does get this earthquake that when such a situation arises in the future we might alert people in the region around the Denali Fault. Not to mention those other areas where earthquakes actually struck this time as well as possibly areas such as, but not limited to, Los Angeles and San Francisco who have as of this writing not been directly affected by this particular movement of the Pacific Tectonic Plate.
Thank-You For Accepting this Official Prediction. Respectfully, EQ Guy
It is more or less common knowledge that the Pacific Tectonic Plate moves towards the north along the edge of the North American Tectonic Plate. In recent days this movement was indicated by several earthquakes along the eastern edge of the Pacific. Most Notably and in order both chronologically as well as from south to north, they are 8.2 Chile, 6.6 Nicaragua, 7.5 Mexico and as of yesterday, April 24, 2014, a 6.6 at Vancouver Island, Canada.
The latter in the series received much discussion in the days before it occurred due to Chile, Nicaragua, and Mexico shaking in that order also more or less as predicted. Chile had also been in an EQ Blog under the heading “Next MegaThruster/Tsunami Could Be Coming” immediately before it shook and in a Twitter message as well. Here is a link to that EQ Blog entry: http://earthquakealert.blogspot.com/2014/04/new-moon-alert-ends-but-next.html
Therefore it seems necessary now to submit this Official Prediction to the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council strictly for the purpose of noting that there should be a Major Earthquake in the range of 6.6 to 8.9 at or near the Denali Fault and very near the City of Anchorage, Alaska and well within the State of Alaska probably well before May 10, 2014 and very likely in the hours and days that will immediately follow the submission and posting of this Official Prediction. It seems most likely Anchorage and Alaska will shake at some point during the April 2014 New Moon Window of April 28 at 6:18 UTC through April 30 at 6:18 UTC if not before then. If this earthquake or series of earthquakes has not commenced by the final moments of the month of April 2014, then it will continue to remain likely into the very early hours and days of May 2014.
This type of occasional movement of the Pacific Tectonic Plate seems as though it is being fairly predictable at least on occasions such as this where it is exhibiting a circular motion thus resulting in the movement against the North American Tectonic Plate that it is rather famous for and has more than been established historically. You could say that if and when Anchorage does get this earthquake that when such a situation arises in the future we might alert people in the region around the Denali Fault. Not to mention those other areas where earthquakes actually struck this time as well as possibly areas such as, but not limited to, Los Angeles and San Francisco who have as of this writing not been directly affected by this particular movement of the Pacific Tectonic Plate.
Thank-You For Accepting this Official Prediction. Respectfully, EQ Guy
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
OFFICIAL PREDICTION FOR A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE TO STRIKE BETWEEN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND TIJUANA BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.9 RICHTERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON THE NIGHT OF MAY 23, 2014
[[THERE is currently an Amendment to this O.P. filed @ http://earthquakealert3.blogspot.com/2014/04/amendment-to-official-prediction-for.html ]]
This Official Prediction is the result of the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Hellen at Madagascar on March 31, 2014 and will thus run until midnight on the night of May 23, 2014. It was previously in effect prior to the 8.2 Richters Earthquake that struck at Iquique, Chile on April 1, 2014 but could still produce more shaking although a considerable amount of earthquake energy was released immediately by way of that big Chile Earthquake.
I routinely track such huge potential sources of what I like to call “Earthquake Energy” for the fact that I have correlated so many major earthquakes as occurring in the wake of these biggest windstorms of all time, and therefore consider this in theory to be some form of energy that must exist and naturally travels from Point-A. . . to wherever Point-B may turn out to be. The resulting theoretical path being thusly some form of Earthquake Energy or another, the actual entity not as of yet having been solved but rather known to exist and as of this writing I seem to be fairly accurately tracking it as many of my regular followers and readers can attest to.
Tropical Cyclone Hellen tracked in sort of a Southeast direction as it made a direct strike at the northern shores of Madagascar on March 31, 2014 and it was noted that the cyclone very rapidly ceased at the point it contacted the shore there. When I checked satellite film clips that were available I found that to be true and formed the opinion that all of those huge winds of this CAT-4 Cyclone must have become “Earthquake Energy” all right at that moment. I prognosticated that this could mean a phenomenal sized Major Earthquake might also strike big time and also immediately and posted a quick “MegaThruster/Tsunami” Alert for as big as 7.9 to 8.5 Richters early on the morning of April 1, 2014 and before that day was out at 6:46pm CDT an 8.2 Richters Earthquake struck at Iquique, Chile and of course a 5 or 6 foot tsunami, too! Exactly as I had “Tweeted” and wrote all about in that days EQ Blog that you can still see @ http://earthquakealert.blogspot.com/2014/04/new-moon-alert-ends-but-next.html
I have to add here that as I scrolled through past EQ Blog entries to locate the above link, I did notice that due to the fact that the 8.2 Chile Earthquake struck later the same day as the above blog entry, and because none of the entries seem to have time-stamp on them, you may not be able to discern by looking at my entire blog the order these were posted in. Of course my mention of Chile possibly shaking came hours before the headline and EQ Blog entry that appears at the top for that day with the very first entry from that day being the first or bottom one on that list in case you went directly to my blog to view it. Otherwise the link above shows what I wrote in the morning that day with the 8.2 Chile Earthquake striking Iquique, Chile that night.
Yes, all of that Major Earthquake Energy could now very well be dissipated, but with so much potential we will have no choice but to follow it along the line to the southeast of Madagascar and across the Antarctic Ocean, up into the Australian Tectonic Plate very near New Zealand and along that Tectonic Plate Boundary and crossing near Hawii onto almost intersecting San Fernando Valley with Tijuana just to the south.
I am now reducing somewhat the range of magnitude that I want associated with this Official Prediction mostly due to not believing San Fernando Valley and Tijuana could shake to the same extent as an extremely shaky place such as Chile can. So, I drop the maximum about one Richter, a scale of earthquake magnitude that it seems universally agreed that I basically made up as a result of assigning each step on the “Richter Scale” and naming them after Charles Richter in a manner similar to how measurements of electrical power are named after a man named Volta, and current is named after a man named Ampere. I see no reason earthquake energy should not be named after Richter and thus I rate earthquakes in “Richters” as opposed to the much more scientific readings of the “Richter Scale” if that matters to anybody.
Earthquake Preparations might need to become a regular habit for California folks anyways, since at least the last two near Los Angeles Earthquakes have actually come to affect a lot of that population and those who had gone and made even the slightest preparations would have then had their extra bottles of water at their side just as thousands of them lost water due to the number of water main breaks in the immediate region surrounding La Habra. Those of you who read it in my EQ Blog and prepared by having extra water on hand, you are welcomed, and please continue to watch my EQ Blog to always know when the next major earthquake might strike California!
This Official Prediction will be in effect until the night of May 23, 2014 at Midnight and while I am writing this mainly for the purpose of having a formal O.P. on file for the Southern California area, it covers several places that could become the epicenter sparing San Fernando and Tijuana. Those other places are Mozambique, Algeria, Morocco, Azores, Iceland, New York, Chicago, New Zealand, Kiribati, and Hawaii.
Those are the towns along the line, 8.2 has already struck, and this O.P. will run through Day-43 after the landfall of T.C. Hellen at Madagascar, possibly striking somewhere else besides Southern California. However earthquake preparations should always be a fact of life in California and right now is always a good time to start.
Thank-You Again for accepting this Official Prediction!!! Respectfully, EQ Guy
This Official Prediction is the result of the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Hellen at Madagascar on March 31, 2014 and will thus run until midnight on the night of May 23, 2014. It was previously in effect prior to the 8.2 Richters Earthquake that struck at Iquique, Chile on April 1, 2014 but could still produce more shaking although a considerable amount of earthquake energy was released immediately by way of that big Chile Earthquake.
I routinely track such huge potential sources of what I like to call “Earthquake Energy” for the fact that I have correlated so many major earthquakes as occurring in the wake of these biggest windstorms of all time, and therefore consider this in theory to be some form of energy that must exist and naturally travels from Point-A. . . to wherever Point-B may turn out to be. The resulting theoretical path being thusly some form of Earthquake Energy or another, the actual entity not as of yet having been solved but rather known to exist and as of this writing I seem to be fairly accurately tracking it as many of my regular followers and readers can attest to.
Tropical Cyclone Hellen tracked in sort of a Southeast direction as it made a direct strike at the northern shores of Madagascar on March 31, 2014 and it was noted that the cyclone very rapidly ceased at the point it contacted the shore there. When I checked satellite film clips that were available I found that to be true and formed the opinion that all of those huge winds of this CAT-4 Cyclone must have become “Earthquake Energy” all right at that moment. I prognosticated that this could mean a phenomenal sized Major Earthquake might also strike big time and also immediately and posted a quick “MegaThruster/Tsunami” Alert for as big as 7.9 to 8.5 Richters early on the morning of April 1, 2014 and before that day was out at 6:46pm CDT an 8.2 Richters Earthquake struck at Iquique, Chile and of course a 5 or 6 foot tsunami, too! Exactly as I had “Tweeted” and wrote all about in that days EQ Blog that you can still see @ http://earthquakealert.blogspot.com/2014/04/new-moon-alert-ends-but-next.html
I have to add here that as I scrolled through past EQ Blog entries to locate the above link, I did notice that due to the fact that the 8.2 Chile Earthquake struck later the same day as the above blog entry, and because none of the entries seem to have time-stamp on them, you may not be able to discern by looking at my entire blog the order these were posted in. Of course my mention of Chile possibly shaking came hours before the headline and EQ Blog entry that appears at the top for that day with the very first entry from that day being the first or bottom one on that list in case you went directly to my blog to view it. Otherwise the link above shows what I wrote in the morning that day with the 8.2 Chile Earthquake striking Iquique, Chile that night.
Yes, all of that Major Earthquake Energy could now very well be dissipated, but with so much potential we will have no choice but to follow it along the line to the southeast of Madagascar and across the Antarctic Ocean, up into the Australian Tectonic Plate very near New Zealand and along that Tectonic Plate Boundary and crossing near Hawii onto almost intersecting San Fernando Valley with Tijuana just to the south.
I am now reducing somewhat the range of magnitude that I want associated with this Official Prediction mostly due to not believing San Fernando Valley and Tijuana could shake to the same extent as an extremely shaky place such as Chile can. So, I drop the maximum about one Richter, a scale of earthquake magnitude that it seems universally agreed that I basically made up as a result of assigning each step on the “Richter Scale” and naming them after Charles Richter in a manner similar to how measurements of electrical power are named after a man named Volta, and current is named after a man named Ampere. I see no reason earthquake energy should not be named after Richter and thus I rate earthquakes in “Richters” as opposed to the much more scientific readings of the “Richter Scale” if that matters to anybody.
Earthquake Preparations might need to become a regular habit for California folks anyways, since at least the last two near Los Angeles Earthquakes have actually come to affect a lot of that population and those who had gone and made even the slightest preparations would have then had their extra bottles of water at their side just as thousands of them lost water due to the number of water main breaks in the immediate region surrounding La Habra. Those of you who read it in my EQ Blog and prepared by having extra water on hand, you are welcomed, and please continue to watch my EQ Blog to always know when the next major earthquake might strike California!
This Official Prediction will be in effect until the night of May 23, 2014 at Midnight and while I am writing this mainly for the purpose of having a formal O.P. on file for the Southern California area, it covers several places that could become the epicenter sparing San Fernando and Tijuana. Those other places are Mozambique, Algeria, Morocco, Azores, Iceland, New York, Chicago, New Zealand, Kiribati, and Hawaii.
Those are the towns along the line, 8.2 has already struck, and this O.P. will run through Day-43 after the landfall of T.C. Hellen at Madagascar, possibly striking somewhere else besides Southern California. However earthquake preparations should always be a fact of life in California and right now is always a good time to start.
Thank-You Again for accepting this Official Prediction!!! Respectfully, EQ Guy
Sunday, March 23, 2014
HUGE Tropical Cyclone Gillian Heads Towards Offshore Australia Shores!!!!! Enormous Eye!!! GUSTS = 135 Knots!!!, NOW a CAT-5!!!
I just discovered this HUGE Tropical Cyclone and am posting it here mostly for information related to the search for the plane in the Indian Ocean. There is NOW a Huge Tropical Cyclone heading directly for the same area!!! Just seen it posted as a CAT-5, Now!!! First, here is the main story due to the fact it has already struck at Christmas Island about a thousand miles north of Perth! You may wish to skip ahead and just check out those awesome pics. . . but here's the story: http://www.smh.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-gillian-hits-christmas-island-20140322-359ou.html AND Here is the page dedicated to Tropical Cyclone #17, Gillian at Hurricane Zone.net: http://www.hurricanezone.net/#17p
Now the pics, first a huge overall shot showing the current location as of Sunday Morning as I am writing this give or take just a few hours:
AND HERE is a Great shot of what it looks like from above in a Close-Shot:
The forecast appears to show it heading directly into the region where they are searching!!! @
Finally I copied all the forecast information from the above Hurricane Zone Page and will paste all of it at the end of this blog entry. All of this will only be valid through Sunday, March 23, 2014 as new forecasts will be updated beginning throughout the day and of course into Monday. That link above may update, though! Thank-You for Reading!!! EQ Guy
WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 103.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 103.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.2S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.3S 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.3S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.2S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.5S 100.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.2S 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 103.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC GILLION HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED AROUND
A 15NM SLIGHTLY IRREGULAR EYE. A 230305Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL WITH IMPROVED BANDING
IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 110 KTS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC GILLION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THIS STR THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WELL TO THE
SOUTH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN. AFTER TAU 24, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS VWS
INCREASES FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR
TRAILING THE TROUGH, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO MOVE A
WEAKENING TC 17P WESTWARD. VWS WILL GREATLY INCREASE AFTER TAU 48 AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES AND WILL INDUCE A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD BY TAU 96. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD, BUT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND NAVGEM, GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
Now the pics, first a huge overall shot showing the current location as of Sunday Morning as I am writing this give or take just a few hours:
The forecast appears to show it heading directly into the region where they are searching!!! @
Finally I copied all the forecast information from the above Hurricane Zone Page and will paste all of it at the end of this blog entry. All of this will only be valid through Sunday, March 23, 2014 as new forecasts will be updated beginning throughout the day and of course into Monday. That link above may update, though! Thank-You for Reading!!! EQ Guy
WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 103.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 103.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.2S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.3S 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.3S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.2S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.5S 100.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.2S 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 103.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC GILLION HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED AROUND
A 15NM SLIGHTLY IRREGULAR EYE. A 230305Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL WITH IMPROVED BANDING
IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 110 KTS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC GILLION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THIS STR THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WELL TO THE
SOUTH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN. AFTER TAU 24, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS VWS
INCREASES FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR
TRAILING THE TROUGH, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO MOVE A
WEAKENING TC 17P WESTWARD. VWS WILL GREATLY INCREASE AFTER TAU 48 AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES AND WILL INDUCE A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD BY TAU 96. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD, BUT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND NAVGEM, GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
Friday, January 31, 2014
New EQ Podcast: Official Prediction for 9 Richters California!!!
CLICK Arrow and Listen!!! Thank-You!!! EQ Guy
Friday, January 24, 2014
EQ Podcast #001
My Very First Podcast!!!!! Check It Out!!! Click Arrow!!!
Thank-You For Listening!!!!! EQ Guy
Thank-You For Listening!!!!! EQ Guy
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